Texas A&M came off a thumping against Auburn 63-21 while Miss State got thumped on the road to #1 Alabama. Now A&M is everyone's favorite play, but suddenly they are laying road chalk against a solid Miss State team that is always a tough team to beat at home and plays tough defense. I know the Aggies freshmen sensation Johny Manziel has turned heads in his first year in the conference, but with Alabama up next I see them peaking ahead a bit. I don't expect a hang over for Miss State as nobody thought they were going to go on the road and beat Alabama. Everything that they were playing for is still there for the taking.
This is A&M's 4th road game in 5 games and they'll be on the road again next week so this is a very difficult scheduling spot for the Aggies and this is easily their most challenging road game as they faced SMU, Auburn, LA Tech, and Mississippi. Those defenses were ranked 93rd, 113th, 43rd, and 53rd while Miss State is ranked 26th and they play in a building that's very challenging to win in. A&M should be able to run in this game because they have done it all year, but the offense struggles to score TD's when they can't find balance.
Miss State features two next level CB in Darius Slay and Johnathan Banks and that should make defending the run much easier. Miss State has been very good against the pass this year they held Tyler Bray to 148 passing yards at home and they are ranked 27th in opposing QB ratings. A&M has not faced a team ranked in the top 47 on the road this year, once again this will be Manziel's most challenging task and now that there is more tape on him it should be tough for him to carry the load. This is a copy cat league and Miss State absolutely has the personnel to copy what some other teams did against Manziel. Look for them to put a LB to spy on Manziel and force him to make mistakes.
That's something MIss State has been good at and A&M is -5 turnovers on the road this year. They are 6th best forcing 3.2 turnovers per game at home and 16th overall. That goes along with the trend of this team. The Bulldogs just don't beat themselves, 14th in penalties per game while the Aggies are 104th. Miss State has also only allowed 37 tackles for loss and rarely get sacked just 3.03% of drop backs good for 17th. They should be in this game especially since they only allow 38% TD's in red zone on defense at home.
Wake Forest has a couple of extra days to prepare for what should be a big game as they look towards being eligible for a bowl game. Boston College is still holding out hope, but there is no way this team goes bowling having to win out after they just barely beat Maryland at home on a last minute TD pass.
The biggest factor in this game will be WR Michael Campanaro for Wake Forest as he returned last game and now has had the extra time to work in with QB Tanner Price in which should be a game where they finally have some semblance of balance against a Boston College defense that is very bad. BC is ranked 115th in total yard defense, 94th in scoring defense, 72nd vs. the pass, 122nd vs. the run. BC's defense is allowing 66% completions on the road so even Tanner Price should find plenty of success as eh's completed 61% at home and now has Campanaro to work with. Wake has faced some top defenses already this year 4 in the top 54 and they will look forward to facing a BC team that can't get too cocky after keeping Maryland in check who was working with a 4th string freshmen QB. They still allowed over 330 yards in their own building.
When we talk about getting pressure that's something we can not under estimate as Wake Forest has been very good ranked 36th in sack %, while BC is ranked 119th. Wake Forest also has 22 more tackles for loss than Boston College which should set them up in longer third down situations.
That's not a good thing as Boston College is only converting 28%, and 21% on the road, while their defense has allowed 48% conversions on the road. Wake Forest on the other hand has been a bit better holding opponents to 46% conversions and have converted 39.4% at home.
Bottom line this is a good match up for Wake Forest and their offense and defense that struggles against teams with speedier talent. Boston College definitely does not have a ton of athletes and speed and I think Wake will have every opportunity to win this game.
